HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV prevention.
The overall intent of developing a quality framework is to enable a set of standards that ensure models contribute to an optimal decision related to the introduction of a new intervention or health program. A quality framework attempts to address poorly designed models, over-simplification, misinterpretation and failure to appreciate the degree of uncertainty in a decision process.¹ Existing general frameworks do not address specific issues of HPV model structure or parameterization which can have a critical impact on modelled evaluations of prevention. As a simple example, models of male HPV vaccination that do not use dynamic modelling will not include the critical role of herd immunity and thus are unlikely to accurately estimate the cost-effectiveness of this intervention in a particular population. A consensus-based itemized checklist for quality assessment will be will be developed.
Reporting models according to an explicit quality framework will allow the end-user to appreciate:
- How accurately the model reflects outcomes prior to change (judgement of model validity)
- Areas of simplification & whether appropriate to the decision question
- The degree of uncertainty in a decision process.
1. Simonella L, Canfell K. Development of a quality
framework for models of cervical screening and its
application to evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of HPV
vaccination in developed countries. In press: Accepted by
Vaccine 16th August 2014.